Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 12.085572 14.162450 16.438550 19.111345 22.156876 25.511722 29.479494
2025-01-05 8.821035 11.490559 14.685714 18.764119 23.800969 29.785061 37.396654
2025-01-12 6.961387 9.903553 13.689615 18.857718 25.658254 34.223197 45.735489
2025-01-19 5.652466 8.686243 12.842718 18.849484 27.183596 38.195730 53.674148
2025-01-26 5.004907 8.214178 12.850058 19.875150 30.054758 44.037621 64.407184
2025-02-02 4.439697 7.741773 12.747773 20.664992 32.589295 49.537634 75.008748
2025-02-09 4.009740 7.392656 12.752084 21.561012 35.293043 55.407647 86.472807
2025-02-16 3.465469 6.760175 12.215945 21.532898 36.556883 59.219341 95.154226
2025-02-23 2.904542 6.001390 11.363935 20.878481 36.743322 61.372446 101.440056
2025-03-02 2.416336 5.287936 10.485510 20.059139 36.549079 62.866232 106.740424
2025-03-09 2.127961 4.902573 10.125828 20.068387 37.684314 66.477518 115.497438
2025-03-16 1.894524 4.586299 9.847433 20.178669 38.974848 70.387996 124.917912
2025-03-23 1.675194 4.269811 9.541499 20.228416 40.201712 74.338589 134.762001
2025-03-30 1.408607 3.802203 8.877955 19.531896 40.031992 75.923580 140.789089
2025-04-06 1.245699 3.540004 8.593879 19.532054 41.121429 79.718390 150.736943
2025-04-13 1.101409 3.294373 8.309854 19.495256 42.124491 83.404006 160.677986
2025-04-20 1.055937 3.287990 8.544581 20.542805 45.281466 91.109299 178.029212
2025-04-27 0.996279 3.233684 8.663465 21.353117 48.024640 98.205271 194.640353
2025-05-04 0.948089 3.201619 8.828449 22.274314 51.047931 105.971559 212.817625
2025-05-11 0.847792 3.003752 8.574602 22.245153 52.130845 110.159772 224.680093
2025-05-18 0.725819 2.715893 8.060623 21.571732 51.817199 111.662177 231.645652
2025-05-25 0.612646 2.427643 7.502016 20.728559 51.063644 112.247625 236.891496
2025-06-01 0.550885 2.289258 7.312776 20.738070 52.139945 116.461671 249.188917